Strait of Hormuz Disruption Simulation
A Power BI what-if analysis simulating oil & gas supply disruption, price shocks, and country-level risk from a potential Strait of Hormuz closure.
Present Day Snapshot
Project Overview
- Objective: Use real-world data and Power BI to simulate how a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt oil flows, impact prices, and affect different countries.
- Tools Used: Power BI, DAX, What-If Parameters, Maps, Stacked Columns, Scenario Simulation
Simulation Logic
- ~20 mb/d oil & gas flows through the Strait daily; simulation assumes ~6 mb/d disrupted, ~4.5 mb/d rerouted.
- Price modeled to rise ~$5/day based on historical responses to similar events (e.g., tanker attacks, wars).
- Country risk levels based on % dependency of imports from Gulf producers.
Dashboard Sections
- Import Dependency: Visualizes LNG and oil imports by country and global reliance on SoH flows.
- Price Shock Simulation: Forecasts Brent crude increases based on daily shortfall values.
- Global Risk Map: Shows risk levels by country depending on their reliance and alternatives.
Key Insights
- Japan and South Korea face the highest exposure with limited alternatives.
- Price could spike by $30–$40 within a week of total closure before stabilizing.
- Global energy security is more fragile than it seems, concentrated around a single waterway.
Skills Demonstrated
- Scenario modeling with DAX and What-If parameters.
- Geopolitical risk translation into visual analytics.
- Interactive storytelling through maps, sliders, and simulations.